Friday, June 17, 2016

Aviation Investor Has Been Rebranded To AeroAnalysis


After having started Aviation Investor in early 2015, it became clear to us that our growth aspirations were far bigger than we could accomodate on a blogspot. That's is why we have established AeroAnalysis, a fast growing news and analysis website. Pay us a visit!

Friday, June 12, 2015

Boeing: The Cut Is Coming... But The Gap Is Not Closed Yet

[Full Article Here]
I did a small research on the production gap Boeing has to bridge after the rate cut that will take effect in 2018.

Summary

  • Boeing would need an additional 171 orders to close the gap until 2020
  • In order to close this gap Boeing will need about 40 orders per year, which is achievable
  • To close the gap, without cutting rates Boeing will need about 60 orders per year
  • A combination of cutting rates after 2020, while ramping up Boeing 777X production  is most probable


[Full Article Here]

Boeing: The Cut Is Coming... But Later Than Predicted

[Full Article Here]
I performed a small analysis on the rate cut and the words Boeing used to confirm this cut.
Summary:

  • Starting in 2018 Boeing will cut production of the classic Boeing 777 by 1 per month
  • Boeing will delivery 12 airframes less per year, while it dedicates some slots to production of 777X parts
  • A cut will put some pressure on Boeing's cashflow generation from the Boeing 777 progra,

[Full Article Here] 

Monday, June 8, 2015

About reaching 150 followers on SeekingAlpha


I recently reached 150 followers on SeekingAlpha. Although this is not an impressive number compared to some fellow contributors, I am still happy with it. 

Currently I focus on the aerospace industry, with a particular focus on the competition between Boeing and Airbus.In my articles I analyze quarter results, orders and deliveries, market forecasts and various aircraft.

Writing about the competition between Airbus and Boeing is not easy, since both companies are extremely complex and a lot of people have a preference for either of the companies. This, at times, results in heated discussions, but most of the times also result in a fruitful constructive discussions with fair points. 

This also motivated me in developing a model that can be used to estimated fuel consumption for various aircraft. This model can be used to analyze the efficiency  of various aircraft and analyze various flights (and draw conclusions on which aircraft might be the better choice). 
Although the model is not fully accurate (no model is fully accurate), I think it does quite a good job and should help investors understanding the products both manufacturers make. 

Besides focusing on Airbus and Boeing, I also am eyeballing COMAC which should play a meaningful rol in 1-2 decades from now. 

Recently I have also been expanding my coverage towards Dutch stocks. I've written pieces covering ING and ASML. In the future I hope to expand my coverage towards technology as well, as just like aerospace articles they require a thorough knowledge about technology/engineering and financials. 

After 2 years of writing I have published 96 articles, gained 157 followers on SeekingAlpha (Visit my profile) and 168 followers on Twitter.

Some interesting milestones/events:

  1. My first article, published on 6/4/2013, not my best article but it was the change from becoming a reader on SeekingAlpha to becoming a contributor on SeekingAlpha.
  2. My work was quoted by Steve Willhelm from The Puget Sound Business Journal
  3. A reach out from the sales department of Boeing that had some comments on an article I wrote
  4. Boeing, Airbus and GE employees reading my work, which shows that my work has a reach in the industry as well.... 
  5. A request for an interview with an investment fund that has an AuM of $2 bn
  6. Establishing this blog to expand reach
  7. Being featured by dividendreference.com as 10 dividend experts worth following
The top 3 best read articles:

  1. Boeing And Airbus: The Battle Of The Jumbos, With An Unexpected Winner?Boeing: Last 
  2. Chance For The 747-8I Or Just Leverage To Force Airbus To Develop A More Efficient A380?
  3. Boeing: What Is New On The Boeing 777X?


Sunday, June 7, 2015

Video of the Day: US Airways A330: Smooth...

This short video does not require a lot of words: One of the smoothest landings I have ever seen.
Watch in HD and full screen!

Friday, June 5, 2015

Picture of the day: Dark clouds packing


Image courtesy: Airliners.net Juan Bog
A beautiful picture showing 2 new liveries (Avianca and Iberia), a rather old and a rather new aircraft. While the old Airbus A340 is on short final, the Boeing 787 is about to start it's journey. Oh and those clouds in the back..... spooky.

Low Oil Prices Are Not Giving Wings To The Airbus A380 Order Book

[Full Article Here]


In one of my previous articles I concluded that discounts and low oil prices are providing tailwind to the Boeing 777 order book. Some of my readers believed that this was also true for the Airbus A380, so I peformed a small analysis on the impact of fuel prices on the economics of the Airbus A380. A link to the full analysis can be found at the top and bottom of this blog.

The following can be concluded:

  • The Airbus A380 burns about 3.2L per 100 passenger-km
  • The fuel costs on a fully occupied Airbus A380 are 26% lower, resulting in a 8% higher profit
  • The fuel costs for a A380 at 80% seat count are 25% lower, resulting in 10% higher profit
  • Although costs are lower, airlines are not ordering the airplane since it is quite a challenge filling the aircraft and the airframe already is becoming obsolete


[Full Article Here]